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Portsmouth vs Stoke City Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 07-11-2026
Nov 712:30
Match Prediction
Expected score: Portsmouth 1-0 Stoke City
PortsmouthDrawStoke City
Over 2.5 goalsNo (44%)
Portsmouth host Stoke City at Fratton Park in a Championship fixture that pits a resurgent home side against one of the division's in-form teams. Stoke arrive third in the table with 26 points from 14 games, while Portsmouth sit tenth with 22 points. The visitors have won four of their last five league matches and conceded just three goals in that run, but Portsmouth's recent form at home suggests they will not be overawed.
Team form
Portsmouth
Portsmouth have taken 7 goals and conceded 6 across their last five outings, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Their most recent fixture was a 1-1 draw away at Wolves, where they managed just one shot on goal despite 42% possession. At home, however, they beat Cardiff 2-0 in early September and won 3-1 at Lincoln in late August, showing they can be dangerous on their own pitch. Over the season they average 1.36 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game.
Stoke City
Stoke City have been exceptional in their last five matches, scoring 10 goals while conceding only 3. They won 4-0 at home to Charlton, beat Sheffield United 2-1, and won 2-1 away at Watford. Their most recent outing, a 2-1 victory over Sheffield United at home, saw them dominate with 62% possession and five shots on goal. Across the season they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game, placing them among the division's more prolific and disciplined sides.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record is mixed. Portsmouth won 3-1 at home in January 2025 and claimed a 3-1 away victory in April 2026, but Stoke won 1-0 away in October 2025 and thrashed Portsmouth 6-1 at home in October 2024. The most recent meeting went Portsmouth's way, suggesting the hosts carry some psychological edge into this contest.
Key factors
Stoke's defensive solidity in recent weeks is their standout strength, conceding just 0.6 goals per game over their last five matches. Portsmouth will need to be clinical in front of goal if they are to breach that resilience. The visitors' superior league position and current form make them the more accomplished side, yet Portsmouth's home record and recent results against Stoke offer genuine encouragement. Possession and territory may favour Stoke, but Portsmouth's ability to score at Fratton Park cannot be discounted. The bookmakers price this as a tight affair, with the home win at 2.36 reflecting genuine uncertainty.
Prediction
Portsmouth hold a slight edge at home. Stoke's form is superior and their defensive record impressive, but the hosts' familiarity with their surroundings and recent success in this fixture provide meaningful support. The match is finely balanced—neither side can be called a favourite—but Portsmouth's home advantage and Stoke's tendency to concede goals in direct encounters tip the scales marginally in the hosts' favour. Expect a low-scoring game with limited clear-cut chances; both sides are capable of scoring, but neither is likely to run away with it.
Back Portsmouth to win. This is not a confident call—the odds reflect a genuinely competitive fixture—but the home side's recent record at Fratton Park and their head-to-head advantage over Stoke justify a narrow preference for the hosts. A 1-0 victory represents the likeliest outcome, though draws and away wins remain realistic possibilities in what shapes as a cagey, tightly contested encounter.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Portsmouth
D
W
D
W
W
Stoke City
D
W
D
W
L
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Utd | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 5 |
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