Match Finished
Estrela vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 08-11-2026
Nov 820:30
2 : 3
Match Prediction
Expected score: Estrela 0-3 Benfica
EstrelaDrawBenfica
Over 2.5 goalsYes (75%)
Benfica travel to Amadora to face Estrela in Primeira Liga Round 11, a fixture that on paper presents a stark mismatch in ambition and performance. The visitors sit second with 25 points from ten games, while the hosts languish in 12th with just 10 points. Benfica's recent record reads as a masterclass in clinical finishing; Estrela's tells a story of struggle. This is a match where the gap between the two sides should prove decisive.
Team form
Estrela
Estrela have won just 2 of their opening 10 league games and enter this fixture in alarming form. Over their last five outings they have scored only 5 goals whilst conceding 9, a ratio that explains their mid-table position. Most recently they fell to a 0-2 home defeat to Casa Pia on 24 October, and before that lost 0-1 away at Arouca. In fact, three of their last four matches have ended in defeat without them scoring. Their season average of 1.50 goals per game and 1.90 conceded underlines a side struggling at both ends. Playing in a 4-5-1 formation under coach Pepa, they lack the cutting edge needed against elite opposition.
Benfica
Benfica's form is the polar opposite. They have won four straight league games and five of their last five overall, scoring 19 goals and conceding just 2 across that span. Their season average of 2.70 scored and 0.80 conceded reflects a side operating at a different level entirely. Under Marco Silva's 4-2-3-1 system, they combine defensive solidity with attacking potency. The 3-1 victory over GIL Vicente on 13 September, the 4-0 demolition of Moreirense, and the 7-0 thrashing of Casa Pia in August demonstrate their capacity to impose their will on opponents. They arrive as heavy favourites for sound reason.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record is unambiguous. In their last five meetings, Benfica have won all five, including a 4-0 victory in January 2024 and a 4-0 win in January 2021. Estrela have not beaten Benfica in this sequence and have conceded 15 goals across those five encounters. The only time they managed to score more than once was a 2-3 defeat in February 2025. History offers Estrela no encouragement.
Key factors
Benfica's defensive discipline will be crucial; they have conceded only 8 goals in 10 games. Estrela's attacking impotence—just 15 goals in ten matches—makes it hard to envisage them breaching that defence. The visitors' midfield control, evidenced by 64% possession and 88% pass accuracy in their last outing, should allow them to dictate tempo. Estrela's recent inability to score, particularly at home, suggests they will struggle to create genuine openings. Benfica's forward line, led by players who have consistently delivered, should find space in a Estrela defence that has conceded 1.90 per game on average.
Prediction
The statistical gap between these sides is substantial. Benfica's 25-point lead over Estrela in the standings reflects genuine quality separation. The visitors' recent form—five wins from five—contrasts sharply with Estrela's three defeats in four. Benfica have the personnel, the system, and the momentum to control this match. Estrela's home record offers no refuge; they have lost three of their last four at this ground. While Benfica are not infallible, the probability of an upset here is minimal. The visitors should dictate proceedings and convert their expected dominance into goals.
Benfica are strong favourites to win this encounter. Back the away victory with confidence. The bookmakers price them at 1.24, reflecting their clear superiority. For fantasy league purposes, Benfica's attacking assets merit selection; Estrela's defensive vulnerabilities make their players risky picks. A comfortable away win is the most likely outcome.
Match info
Tournaments:
Primeira Liga(Regular Season - 11)
Referee:
Antonio Nobre
Stadium
Estadio Jose Gomes, Amadora
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Estrela
L
L
W
L
L
Benfica
W
W
W
W
W
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 33 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 15 |  Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
Other Football matches
Estrela vs Benfica - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Estrela vs Benfica football prediction on 365sport.tv combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.