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Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 08-11-2026
Nov 814:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Genoa 0-1 AC Milan
GenoaDrawAC Milan
Genoa host AC Milan at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie A Round 11, with the visitors arriving as narrow favourites despite Genoa's recent upturn in form. Milan sit fifth with 21 points from 10 games; Genoa are 11th with 13 points. The hosts have won three of their last five league matches, including impressive victories over Juventus and Lecce, but face a Milan side that has lost only once this season.
Team form
Genoa
Genoa have recovered sharply. They won 2-1 away at Lecce on 1 November, then beat Juventus 2-0 at home four days earlier and Venezia 1-0 before that. Over their last five games they have scored 7 and conceded 4, a marked improvement on their season average of 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their sole recent setback was a 0-2 loss at Roma on 17 October. De Rossi's 3-4-2-1 setup has provided structure, and Junior Messias and Osmajić have been influential in attack.
AC Milan
Milan's record is more consistent than spectacular. They won 3-2 at home against Atalanta on 18 October but have drawn twice since—1-1 at Sassuolo and 2-2 away at Lazio in September. Over five games they have scored 10 and conceded 6, averaging 2.0 goals for and 1.2 against. Ruben Amorim's 3-4-3 shape has Rabiot and Pulišić in attacking roles, with Gonçalo Ramos leading the line. Milan's single league loss this season came early; they have since tightened their defensive discipline.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record favours Milan. In their last five meetings, Milan have won three times (2-1 in 2018, 1-0 in 2017 and 2016) and drawn once, with Genoa's sole victory a 3-1 away win in 2015. Milan have won both of their most recent home fixtures against Genoa by a single goal, suggesting tight contests at this level.
Key factors
Genoa's recent form is genuine—three wins in four games represent a real upturn—but Milan remain the more accomplished side across the season. Milan's xG output (2.38 in their last match) and goal-scoring average (2.10 per game) outstrip Genoa's (1.00 per game). Genoa have conceded 14 goals in 10 games; Milan's attack should find space. Genoa are without L. Venturino through injury. Milan's defensive solidity—only one league loss—is a key asset. The bookmakers price an away win at 1.81, reflecting Milan's edge, though Genoa's recent momentum makes this no formality.
Prediction
Milan hold a narrow advantage. They have superior attacking output, a tighter defence, and a better league record. Genoa's three-game winning streak is encouraging but comes against mid-table opposition; Milan represent a step up in quality. The expected goals balance slightly favours Milan, and their experience in tight matches—evidenced by their head-to-head record—gives them an edge. However, Genoa's form and home advantage keep this competitive. A Milan win is the most likely outcome, but Genoa have enough recent confidence to trouble their visitors.
AC Milan are slight favourites to take the points. The visitors' superior season record, attacking potency, and historical edge in this fixture outweigh Genoa's recent momentum. Expect a tight contest with Milan's quality telling in the end, though Genoa will test them. The goals market is finely balanced—both sides can score, but a low-scoring affair is equally plausible.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Genoa
W
W
W
L
W
AC Milan
L
W
L
W
L
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 |  Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Torino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 12 |  Genoa | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 16 |  Parma | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
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Genoa vs AC Milan - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Genoa vs AC Milan football prediction on 365sport.tv combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.