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Burton Albion vs Notts County Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 10-11-2026
Nov 1019:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Burton Albion 2-1 Notts County
Burton AlbionDrawNotts County
Over 2.5 goalsYes (56%)
Both teams to scoreYes (58%)
Burton Albion host Notts County in the EFL Trophy Group North stage at Pirelli Stadium. This is a competition fixture rather than league business, but both sides will be keen to progress. The teams met in League One just over two months ago, with Notts County winning 2-1 at home—a result that may linger in Burton's minds as they look to settle the score.
Team form
Burton Albion
Burton's recent League One record is mixed. They won 4-1 at home against AFC Wimbledon and claimed a 2-1 away victory at Leicester, but sandwiched between those performances were a 2-2 draw with Cambridge and a heavy 3-0 defeat at Oxford. Over their last five league outings, they have scored 9 and conceded 9—a tally that suggests defensive vulnerability despite moments of attacking promise. In their most recent fixture on 12 September, they managed only 35% possession and 0.47 expected goals in the loss to Oxford, suggesting they can struggle to control games.
Notts County
Notts County have been tighter defensively but blunt in attack. They have won just once in their last five league matches—that victory coming against Burton—and have since lost to Reading and Bradford while drawing with Huddersfield and Doncaster. Over the same span, they have scored only 4 goals and conceded 6, averaging 0.8 goals per game. Their most recent outing saw them held to 0-0 against Reading, though they did register 52% possession and 0.59 expected goals in a 1-1 draw with Huddersfield, showing they can be competitive when they retain the ball.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record favours Notts County. They won the most recent meeting 2-1 at home in late August, and have won two of the last three encounters between the sides. Burton's sole victory in that sequence came in 2024, also away from home. Notts County's recent dominance suggests they carry psychological advantage into this fixture.
Key factors
Possession and control will likely be pivotal. Notts County's pass accuracy of 77% in their last outing contrasts sharply with Burton's 61%, and the visitors' ability to dominate the ball has been a feature of their recent form. Burton, however, showed attacking intent in their win over AFC Wimbledon and can be dangerous on the break. The EFL Trophy format may see both sides field slightly different lineups or intensity levels compared to league play, adding an element of uncertainty. Burton's home record at Pirelli Stadium has shown both attacking flair and defensive lapses, while Notts County's recent away form has been cautious.
Prediction
Burton hold a narrow edge in this fixture, primarily because they are at home. Their recent attacking performances—particularly the 4-1 win—suggest they can hurt Notts County, whose defensive record over five games shows they have conceded 6 times. Notts County's possession-based approach and superior passing accuracy should keep them competitive, and their head-to-head advantage is worth noting. However, their goal-scoring drought (0.8 per game) and two consecutive league defeats weigh against them. A fairly open game is expected, with both teams capable of finding the net.
Burton Albion are slight favourites to win this EFL Trophy encounter. Their home advantage and recent attacking output give them the edge, though Notts County's possession control and tactical discipline cannot be discounted. Expect a competitive match with chances at both ends.
Match info
Tournaments:
EFL Trophy(Group North - 6)
Referee:
No information
Stadium
Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Burton Albion
L
W
D
D
L
Notts County
W
D
W
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W
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
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Burton Albion vs Notts County - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
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