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Bahia vs Mirassol Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 11-10-2026
Oct 1122:30
Match Prediction
Expected score: Bahia 1-0 Mirassol
BahiaDrawMirassol
Over 2.5 goalsYes (55%)
Both teams to scoreYes (54%)
As Bahia prepare to face Mirassol in the Serie A — Regular Season - 30 on October 11, 2026, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the league table. Bahia sits sixth with 46 points, boasting a strong record and goal difference. In contrast, Mirassol occupies the lower half of the table at fifteenth, striving to improve their fortunes as the season progresses.
Team form
Bahia
Bahia's recent form has been commendable, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded over their last five matches. Their recent victory against Chapecoense-sc at home, coupled with a dominant display against Atletico Paranaense, highlights their attacking strength. In contrast, they have suffered one loss at home to Palmeiras, which will serve as motivation for them to maintain dominance at their ground. The team under Coach Rogerio Ceni utilizes a 4-3-3 formation that exploits their midfield strength and ability to control possession.
Mirassol
Mirassol's recent form will be a cause for concern, as the team has averaged just 0.4 goals scored while conceding 1.6 per game in their last five outings. The combination of their defensive shortcomings, as reflected in their inability to register goals in crucial moments, has left them without a win in their last five. Their formation under Coach Rafael Guanaes employs a more defensive 5-4-1 system, suggesting they may hope to solidify their defense against Bahia’s attacking capabilities.
Head-to-head
In their last three meetings, Bahia holds a slight edge over Mirassol with two wins and one draw. Notably, their last outing in April 2026 saw Bahia secure a 2-1 victory. However, Mirassol had a notable performance in August 2025, winning by a significant margin of 5-1, indicating that they can challenge Bahia when in form. Their overall recent encounters seem to suggest that both teams can potentially score while exhibiting some inconsistencies in constructed goals.
Key factors
Bahia's home advantage at Arena Fonte Nova and their robust midfield presence are essential factors that can dictate tempo. The team’s ability to keep possession significantly impacts the game as they have showcased an impressive pass accuracy of 91%. Conversely, Mirassol will rely on their defensive structure and hope to capitalize on counter-attacks, but they must address their goal-scoring concerns if they intend to be competitive. The balance of these strategies could be the key to unlocking success for either side.
Prediction
Given Bahia's solid home form and goal tally this season, the prediction leans towards a home victory. While both teams display the potential to score, Mirassol's struggles in getting on the scoresheet and weaknesses defensively lead to skepticism about their chance of neutralizing Bahia's attacking threats. Moreover, Bahia's data-driven scoring advantage suggests they are well-positioned to secure all three points.
The verdict aligns with the statistical model, favoring a home win for Bahia against Mirassol in what could be a closely contested match.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Bahia
L
W
W
W
W
Mirassol
D
W
W
D
W
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 61 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 60 |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 51 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 48 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 46 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 44 |
| 8 |  Santos | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 |  Coritiba | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 38 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 37 |
| 11 |  Sao Paulo | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 36 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 35 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 30 |
| 19 |  Remo | 29 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 24 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 18 |
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Bahia vs Mirassol - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Bahia vs Mirassol football prediction on 365sport.tv combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.