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Burgos Promesas vs UD Santa Marta Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 11-10-2026
Oct 1110:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Burgos Promesas 2-0 UD Santa Marta
Burgos PromesasDrawUD Santa Marta
Over 2.5 goalsYes (57%)
Both teams to scoreNo (35%)
Burgos Promesas host UD Santa Marta in Tercera División RFEF Group 8 on 11 October 2026, with the leaders looking to extend their unbeaten run against a side sitting just one point behind. Burgos Promesas have set the pace early in the season with a commanding record, while Santa Marta remain competitive despite a recent stumble. This clash between the top two carries genuine weight in the group's title race.
Team form
Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas have been exceptional, winning four of their opening five matches and conceding just once. Their defensive solidity is striking—they have shipped only 0.20 goals per game on average. Offensively, they average 1.80 goals per match and have scored in every game bar one. The 3-0 victory over Palencia CF and the 3-0 win at Colegios Diocesanos show they can dismantle opponents when in rhythm. Their only blemish came in a goalless draw away at Cultural Leonesa II, yet they bounced back immediately with a 2-1 win at Mirandés II. They sit top with 13 points from 5 games.
UD Santa Marta
Santa Marta have won four of five but lost twice in their last five outings across all competitions—a 0-3 defeat at Palencia CF in the league and a 1-2 loss to Salamanca UDS in the Copa Federación. Their defensive record is weaker than their rivals, conceding 0.80 per game on average, though they have also been prolific, scoring 1.60 per match. The 2-0 home win over Cultural Leonesa II showed they can control matches, but the heavy loss to Palencia suggests they can be vulnerable to high-pressing attacks. They hold second place with 12 points.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record slightly favours Burgos Promesas. In five meetings, Burgos have won twice, Santa Marta once, and two have ended in draws. Burgos won away 2-1 in 2023 and 2-0 in 2019, while Santa Marta's sole victory came away in 2020 (2-1). The most recent encounter, in October 2024, was a goalless stalemate. Burgos hold the upper hand in this fixture.
Key factors
Burgos Promesas' exceptional defensive discipline will be critical—conceding only one goal in five games is elite form at this level. Santa Marta's vulnerability at the back, especially against coordinated attacks, presents a clear opportunity for the hosts to exploit. Burgos' ability to score consistently, combined with their control in midfield, should allow them to dictate tempo. Santa Marta will need to be compact and clinical on the counter, but their recent away form suggests they may struggle to impose themselves in this environment.
Prediction
Burgos Promesas are clear favourites. They lead the table, boast superior recent form, and hold a stronger head-to-head record. Their defensive record is outstanding and their attacking output reliable. Santa Marta, despite their quality, have shown defensive frailty and inconsistency in recent weeks. The hosts should control possession and create the clearer chances. While Santa Marta cannot be ruled out—they remain a strong side—Burgos' current trajectory and home advantage make them strong favourites to take all three points.
Burgos Promesas are expected to secure a home victory. Their defensive discipline and attacking consistency give them a commanding edge over a Santa Marta side that has shown cracks defensively. A comfortable win for the leaders appears the most likely outcome.
Match info
Tournaments:
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8(Group 8 - 6)
Referee:
No information
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Burgos Promesas
W
D
W
W
W
UD Santa Marta
W
L
L
W
W
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Burgos Promesas | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 |  UD Santa Marta | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 |  Atlético Mansillés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 |  Bembibre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 |  Cristo Atlético | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 |  Cultural Leonesa II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 |  La Virgen del Camino | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 |  Arandina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 |  Almazán | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Palencia CF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 |  Calasanz de Soria | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 |  Villaralbo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 |  Salamanca II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 |  Guijuelo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 |  Turégano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 |  Unionistas II | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 17 |  Mirandés II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 |  Colegios Diocesanos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
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Burgos Promesas vs UD Santa Marta - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Burgos Promesas vs UD Santa Marta football prediction on 365sport.tv combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
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