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Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 11-10-2026
Oct 1112:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Greifswalder FC 1-2 Erzgebirge Aue
Greifswalder FCDrawErzgebirge Aue
Over 2.5 goalsYes (70%)
Both teams to scoreYes (70%)
Greifswalder FC hosts Erzgebirge Aue in Regionalliga Nordost matchday 12, a fixture that pits two mid-table sides with contrasting recent trajectories. Greifswalder sit eighth on 19 points from 11 games, while Aue occupy sixth with 21 points. The visitors arrive with sharper league form, though both teams carry defensive vulnerabilities that suggest an open contest.
Team form
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder's recent record is mixed. They drew 2-2 at home to Hallescher FC on 2026-07-26, their only competitive outing in the available sample. Pre-season friendlies show inconsistency: a 5-3 win over Neustrelitz followed by a 0-3 defeat at Hansa Rostock and two goalless draws. Over their last five outings they scored 8 and conceded 9. For the season, they average 2.09 goals scored but 1.45 conceded per game, suggesting a side that creates chances but leaks opportunities at the back.
Erzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue's league form is stronger. They won 3-2 at home to BFC Dynamo on 2026-08-06 and 2-0 away at Tasmania Berlin on 2026-07-31, sandwiched around a 3-3 draw at Altglienicke. A 0-4 DFB Pokal loss to Hoffenheim on 2026-08-22 and a 2-4 friendly defeat to Schalke 04 show they can be breached, but their league record is solid. Across their last five matches they scored 10 and conceded 13, averaging 2.0 goals for and 2.6 against — a more attack-minded profile than their season average of 1.82 scored and 1.45 conceded suggests.
Head-to-head
No head-to-head record is available between these sides.
Key factors
Both teams concede at identical season rates (1.45 per game), yet Greifswalder score more frequently (2.09 vs 1.82). Aue's recent form in the league is superior, with three wins in their last four competitive matches. The bookmaker market prices over 2.5 goals at 80% implied probability and both teams to score at 79%, reflecting the attacking nature both sides have shown. Greifswalder's home record includes the 2-2 draw, while Aue have won their last two league away games. Coach Christoph Dabrowski's side operate in a 4-2-3-1 formation that provides defensive structure, though recent evidence suggests they remain vulnerable to conceding multiple goals.
Prediction
The market correctly identifies this as a tight affair with goals likely. Aue's superior league form and recent away record give them a slight edge, though Greifswalder's higher scoring average and home advantage keep the contest finely balanced. The expected goal distribution favours the visitors marginally, and their recent consistency in the league outweighs Greifswalder's stronger season-long scoring rate. Both defences are porous enough that both teams scoring is the most probable outcome, with a close scoreline expected.
Erzgebirge Aue are backed to edge this tight contest, though Greifswalder will pose a genuine threat at home. Expect goals at both ends and a match decided by narrow margins.
Match info
Tournaments:
Regionalliga - Nordost(Nordost - 12)
Referee:
No information
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Greifswalder FC
L
W
W
D
D
Erzgebirge Aue
L
D
W
W
W
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
| 2 |  Chemnitzer FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
| 3 |  BFC Dynamo | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| 4 |  Hallescher FC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| 5 |  Altglienicke | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 |  Erzgebirge Aue | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 |  FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 |  Greifswalder FC | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 |  FSV Zwickau | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 |  Lokomotive Leipzig | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 11 |  Magdeburg II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 12 |  SV Babelsberg 03 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 13 |  BFC Preussen | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 |  BSG Chemie Leipzig | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hertha BSC II | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 16 |  RSV Eintracht | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| 17 |  Luckenwalde | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tasmania Berlin | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 |
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Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue football prediction on 365sport.tv combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.