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Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 11-10-2026
Oct 1110:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Lusitânia Lourosa 1-0 Chaves
Lusitânia LourosaDrawChaves
Over 2.5 goalsYes (57%)
Lusitânia Lourosa host Chaves in Segunda Liga Round 7, and it's a matchup that tells the story of two very different seasons so far. The hosts sit pretty at the top of the table with 16 points from six games, while Chaves are struggling down in 16th with just 4 points. On paper, this looks like a mismatch, but football's taught me never to write anyone off completely.
Team form
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa have been the real deal this season. Five wins and a draw from six games — that's the kind of consistency that gets you promoted. They've scored 11 goals and conceded only 4, which tells you they're doing the basics right at both ends. Looking at their last five, they've won four and drawn one, putting away 9 goals while keeping things tight defensively. They're averaging 1.83 goals per game and conceding just 0.67 — those are elite numbers for this level. That said, they managed only 41% possession and 3 shots on goal in their last outing, so they're not always dominating the ball. They don't need to, though — they're clinical when it matters.
Chaves
Chaves are in real trouble. One win, one draw, four losses — that's relegation form, plain and simple. They've shipped 13 goals in six games while scoring just 5, averaging 0.83 scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Their last match was a 4-0 hammering at Farense, and they managed zero shots on goal. That's worrying. In their last five games, they've scored 4 and conceded 9. The only bright spot is a 1-0 home win over Feirense, but that's a lonely light in a lot of darkness. They need to tighten up defensively and find some attacking spark, because right now they look like a team heading in the wrong direction.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head is interesting — these sides have met three times recently and it's been tight. They drew 2-2 in January and again in August 2025, but Chaves won 2-0 at home in October 2024. So there's history of Chaves being competitive, even dangerous, but that was before this season's collapse. The draws suggest these fixtures can be open, but Lusitânia's current form is a world away from where they were in those previous meetings.
Key factors
Lusitânia's attacking threat versus Chaves' leaky defence is the obvious one. The hosts are scoring freely and Chaves are conceding at an alarming rate — that's a recipe for goals. Chaves will need to be compact and disciplined, but their recent form suggests they're struggling to organize. Lusitânia's efficiency is another factor: they don't need much to hurt you. Chaves do have some attacking talent on the bench — players like Roberto and João Teixeira — so if they can get bodies forward, there's a chance they trouble the hosts. But they'll be chasing the game, and that suits Lusitânia's style.
Prediction
Lusitânia are the favourite here, and it's not hard to see why. They're top of the league, firing on all cylinders, and Chaves are in freefall. The gap in quality and form is substantial. Chaves have shown they can be competitive in this fixture historically, but they're not the same team right now. Expect Lusitânia to control this and convert their chances. Chaves might grab one on the break, but it won't be enough.
Back Lusitânia to win. They're the favourite for good reason, and Chaves' defensive fragility makes them vulnerable. A fairly open game is possible given the attacking talent on both sides, but the hosts should have too much.
Match info
Tournaments:
Segunda Liga(Regular Season - 7)
Referee:
David Rafael Oliveira da Silva
Stadium
Estadio Do Lusitania, Lorosa
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Lusitânia Lourosa
W
W
W
W
D
Chaves
L
L
W
W
L
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lusitânia Lourosa | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 |  Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP B | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 |  Farense | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 |  Vizela | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 |  Benfica B | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 |  União de Leiria | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 |  Leixoes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 |  Academica | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 |  AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 |  Tondela | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 |  Portimonense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 |  Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 |  Torreense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Amarante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 16 |  Chaves | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 17 |  FC Porto B | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 18 |  Feirense | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
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Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves football prediction on 365sport.tv combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
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