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Unión Adarve vs Móstoles Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 11-10-2026
Oct 1110:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Unión Adarve 0-1 Móstoles
Unión AdarveDrawMóstoles
Over 2.5 goalsNo (32%)
Both teams to scoreNo (26%)
Unión Adarve host Móstoles in Tercera División RFEF Group 7 on 11 October 2026. The visitors arrive as clear favourites, sitting third in the standings with a commanding defensive record, while the hosts occupy 11th place and have struggled for consistency this season.
Team form
Unión Adarve
Unión Adarve have won just once in five games, that victory coming against SS Reyes II in early September. Since then, three draws and a heavy 0-4 defeat at Torrejón last week have left them adrift. They average 1.20 goals scored but concede 1.60 per game—a concerning imbalance that reflects their defensive vulnerabilities. The 2-2 draw with Fuenlabrada and the 1-1 stalemate against Alcobendas Sport show they can compete, but they lack the cutting edge to convert chances into wins.
Móstoles
Móstoles are the standout performers in this fixture. Three wins from five matches, combined with only two goals conceded across that span, demonstrates a side built on defensive solidity. Their 1-0 victories over Torrejón and Cala Pozuelo, plus the 3-1 demolition of Fuenlabrada, signal a team that knows how to win tight contests. They average 1.20 goals scored but just 0.40 conceded—a +0.8 differential that ranks them among the group's elite. The recent 1-1 draw at home to Leganés II was their only stumble, but it does not diminish their overall trajectory.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record is split. Móstoles won 0-2 away in January 2026 and 0-3 away in January 2020, but Unión Adarve claimed three consecutive home victories between 2021 and 2024, including a 2-1 win in September 2024. Home advantage has historically favoured Adarve in this fixture, yet Móstoles' recent form and defensive prowess suggest this pattern may not hold.
Key factors
Móstoles' miserly defence is the decisive factor. Conceding just 0.4 goals per game, they suffocate opponents and create opportunities on the counter. Unión Adarve's leaky backline—1.60 conceded per game—will be exposed against a side that converts chances clinically. Adarve's lack of a cutting edge (1.20 scored) compounds the problem; they cannot afford to give Móstoles space. The visitors' ability to win without dominating possession, as shown against Torrejón and Cala Pozuelo, suits a trip to a struggling home side.
Prediction
Móstoles should control this match. Their defensive discipline and clinical finishing give them a commanding edge over a Adarve side that has conceded four goals in their last outing and drawn three of their last four. The visitors' third-place position reflects genuine quality; Adarve's 11th place reflects genuine fragility. Móstoles' recent form, combined with their superior goal difference and defensive record, points clearly to an away victory.
Móstoles are strong favourites to win. Back the visitors.
Match info
Tournaments:
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7(Group 7 - 6)
Referee:
No information
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Unión Adarve
L
D
D
D
W
Móstoles
D
W
W
W
D
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colonia Moscardó | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 2 |  Trival Valderas | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 |  Móstoles | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 |  Las Rozas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 |  Cala Pozuelo | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 |  RC Alcobendas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 |  Galapagar | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 |  Fuenlabrada | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 |  Leganés II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 |  Torrejón | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 |  Unión Adarve | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 |  Pozuelo Alarcón | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 13 |  Parla Escuela | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 |  Alcobendas Sport | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 |  Real Aranjuez | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 |  SS Reyes II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 |  Villanueva Pardillo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 |  Rayo Vallecano II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
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Unión Adarve vs Móstoles - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
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