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Alfreton Town vs Southport Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 14-11-2026
Nov 1415:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Alfreton Town 2-1 Southport
Alfreton TownDrawSouthport
Over 2.5 goalsYes (65%)
Both teams to scoreYes (65%)
The FA Trophy Round of 128 brings together Alfreton Town and Southport on 14 November, a tie between two sides operating at different levels of the non-league pyramid. Alfreton compete in the Non League Premier - Northern division, while Southport play in the National League - North, a tier above. This creates an intriguing mismatch on paper, though cup football has a habit of levelling such hierarchies.
Team form
Alfreton Town
Alfreton's recent run shows mixed form across their last five outings. They won back-to-back home games against Avro (3-0) and Gainsborough Trinity (2-1) in mid-August, but have struggled elsewhere, losing away at Cleethorpes Town (1-2) and at home to Curzon Ashton (0-1). A heavy 0-4 defeat to Mansfield Town in a friendly also sits in their record. Over these five matches, they have scored 6 goals while conceding 8, averaging 1.2 per game for and 1.6 against. Their home form carries more promise than their away record.
Southport
Southport have endured a difficult spell, winning just once in their last five league games. That victory came at home against Bedford Town (4-1) in late August, but since then the picture has darkened considerably. They lost 0-2 at Spalding United, 0-1 at home to Hereford, and suffered a heavy 1-5 defeat away at Scarborough Athletic. A 2-2 draw with Hednesford Town offers a glimmer of resilience, but the defensive frailties are evident: 11 goals conceded across five matches at 2.2 per game. Their attacking output of 1.4 per game is marginally better than Alfreton's, but the leaky defence is a serious concern.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record strongly favours Alfreton, who have won four of the last five meetings against Southport. Most tellingly, all four Alfreton victories came at home, including a 2-0 win in 2019 and a 4-0 demolition in 2011. The only blemish on Alfreton's record is a 3-3 draw in 2012. This historical pattern gives the hosts genuine confidence, though it is worth noting these fixtures span over a decade and squad compositions have changed dramatically.
Key factors
Alfreton's home advantage is significant here, both tactically and historically. Southport's recent defensive instability — conceding 2.2 goals per game — will worry their travelling support, especially against a side that has shown it can score at home. However, Southport's league status and their attacking threat (4 goals at home to Bedford Town shows they can be clinical) means they cannot be dismissed. The cup format also removes the pressure of a league campaign, which can sometimes unlock teams in poor form. Alfreton will need to maintain discipline and avoid the kind of defensive lapses that have cost them in recent away games.
Prediction
Alfreton hold a slight favourite status here. Their home record, combined with a strong historical advantage over Southport and the latter's current defensive fragility, tilts the balance toward the hosts. Southport's league status offers some offsetting quality, but their recent form — particularly the defensive leaks — suggests they will struggle to contain Alfreton's attacking intent on their own patch. Both sides look capable of scoring, and the match has the hallmarks of a fairly open contest with chances at both ends.
Back Alfreton Town to edge this tie. The hosts' home advantage, superior head-to-head record, and Southport's shaky defence make the case for the hosts, though this is no foregone conclusion. Expect a competitive match with goals at both ends.
Match info
Tournaments:
FA Trophy(Round of 128)
Referee:
No information
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Alfreton Town
L
L
W
W
D
Southport
L
L
D
L
L
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Alfreton Town vs Southport - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
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