Not Started
Chorley vs Buxton Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 14-11-2026
Nov 1415:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Chorley 2-1 Buxton
ChorleyDrawBuxton
Over 2.5 goalsYes (65%)
Both teams to scoreYes (63%)
Chorley host Buxton in the FA Trophy Round of 128 at Victory Park on 14 November. This is a matchup between two National League North sides with contrasting recent trajectories. Chorley arrive as favourites, and the betting market reflects a home advantage that looks well-founded when you dig into the form and head-to-head record.
Team form
Chorley
Chorley have shown decent stability in their last five league outings, picking up two wins and two draws while losing once. They scored 8 goals and conceded 6 across those games, averaging 1.6 per match in attack and 1.2 in defence. The wins came against Scarborough Athletic (2-1) and Marine (2-0), suggesting they can be clinical when the chances come. The two draws—1-1 at Merthyr and 2-2 at home to Brackley—hint at some defensive vulnerability, but overall this is a side that looks reasonably balanced.
Buxton
Buxton's recent form is more concerning. They have won twice in their last five but also lost three times, conceding 11 goals across the five matches—a rate of 2.2 per game that stands out as problematic. The 4-0 hammering at Morecambe last time out was particularly damaging. They did show attacking intent in wins over Merthyr (2-1) and Oxford City (3-2), but the defensive frailties are hard to ignore. Scoring 1.4 goals per game is respectable, but the leaky backline is a real concern in a knockout tie.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record favours Buxton decisively. In the last five meetings, Buxton have won three times and drawn twice, with Chorley failing to win any of those encounters. Buxton won 3-2 at home most recently in October 2025 and have taken three points from Chorley on three separate occasions. However, knockout football can overturn such patterns, and Chorley's home advantage in this one is tangible.
Key factors
Chorley's home record and overall solidity in the league this season give them an edge here. Buxton's defensive vulnerabilities—particularly the recent heavy defeat—suggest they may struggle to contain a Chorley side that averages 1.6 goals per game. The away side's attacking threat is real, but their leakiness at the back means they could be exposed. Chorley have shown they can score and have been difficult to break down at Victory Park. The pitch and crowd support should matter in a cup tie of this nature.
Prediction
Chorley are the favourite here at 57.8%, and that makes sense. They have the better recent form, the home advantage, and a more solid defensive record. Buxton's last five games reveal a side struggling at the back, and while their attacking output is reasonable, it may not be enough to overcome Chorley's setup. The model suggests Chorley should create the clearer chances and edge this one, though Buxton's proven ability to score means a competitive match is likely.
Back Chorley as the favourite. They should have enough to see off a Buxton side whose defensive issues have become acute. The home advantage and superior recent stability make them the more likely winner in what looks set to be a fairly open contest.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Chorley
L
L
W
L
L
Buxton
D
W
W
W
D
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Other Football matches
Chorley vs Buxton - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Chorley vs Buxton football prediction on 365sport.tv combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.