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Heerenveen vs Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 16-10-2026
Oct 1618:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Heerenveen 2-1 Excelsior
HeerenveenDrawExcelsior
Over 2.5 goalsYes (65%)
Both teams to scoreYes (62%)
Heerenveen hosts Excelsior in a mid-table Eredivisie clash at the Abe Lenstra Stadion on October 16, 2026. Both teams are navigating a rocky start to their seasons and will look to secure three compelling points from this encounter.
Team form
Heerenveen
Heerenveen currently sits 10th in the league standings with 9 points from 8 matches, securing 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses. They have scored a total of 11 goals while conceding the same number, which results in an average of 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 allowed per game. Their recent form has seen them struggle, losing to PSV Eindhoven (0-2) in their last outing while managing a remarkable 4-0 win against Sparta Rotterdam prior. In the previous five fixtures, they have an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded.
Excelsior
Excelsior is positioned slightly better in the league at 9th with 11 points over 8 matches, with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses to their name. Compared to Heerenveen, they have a higher tally of goals with 16 scored, though they also have a higher number of leaks at the back, conceding 14 goals, which reflects an average of 2.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their latest match saw them suffer a heavy defeat at 1-5 against Groningen. Excelsior's recent form is also mixed, averaging 1.8 goals scored and a concerning 2.2 goals conceded in their last five matches.
Head-to-head
In their last five encounters, the match-up between Heerenveen and Excelsior has been competitive and relatively balanced. Notably, their last meeting ended in a thrilling 3-3 draw. Prior to that, Heerenveen had better success, winning twice with scores of 2-1. However, Excelsior achieved its own high-scoring win against Heerenveen with a 4-1 victory, highlighting the dynamic presence both teams can have in attack.
Key factors
A key factor in this matchup will be each team's defensive organization given the average goals conceded rates, especially Excelsior's. Heerenveen's stronger tendency to fluctuate in both scoring and conceding may offer Excelsior opportunities if they can harness their attacking strategies effectively in a 4-3-3 formation. Ball possession plays a crucial role, and both sides are expected to share it similarly, as seen in recent games.
Prediction
Based on the recent form and underlying statistics, Heerenveen appears to hold a slight advantage as they are on home turf. Predicted expected goals favor Heerenveen at 2.08 compared to Excelsior’s predicted 1.24. Consequently, Heerenveen's solid performing key players may further elevate their chances in a potentially high-scoring game.
This match presents Heerenveen as the favorable side, given their likelihood of winning based on recent form and performance. Expect an engaging game likely to feature multiple goals, with Heerenveen aiming for a home victory.
Match info
Tournaments:
Eredivisie(Regular Season - 9)
Referee:
Robin Hensgens
Stadium
Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Heerenveen
L
W
D
L
D
Excelsior
L
D
L
D
W
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 |  Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 |  Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 |  Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 |  Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
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Heerenveen vs Excelsior - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Heerenveen vs Excelsior football prediction on 365sport.tv combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.