Match Finished
Tonbridge Angels vs Hemel Hempstead Town Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 17-10-2026
Oct 1714:00
1 : 0
Match Prediction
Expected score: Tonbridge Angels 1-0 Hemel Hempstead Town
Tonbridge AngelsDrawHemel Hempstead Town
Tonbridge Angels host Hemel Hempstead Town in National League South round 28, a fixture that pits the division's ninth-placed side against a struggling fourteenth. The bookmakers have priced this as a fairly tight contest, with the home win at 2.09 reflecting genuine uncertainty despite Tonbridge's superior league position and goal difference.
Team form
Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels have been volatile. They opened their recent run with a 0-1 home loss to Maidstone United, but bounced back decisively with a 4-0 away win at Farnborough and a 5-1 home demolition of Walton & Hersham. A 2-2 draw at Billericay Town followed, then another blank defeat, 0-2 at home to Truro City. Over their last five matches they have scored 11 and conceded 6, averaging 2.2 goals for and 1.2 against — well above their season average of 1.82 scored and 1.00 conceded. They remain capable of both clinical finishing and defensive lapses.
Hemel Hempstead Town
Hemel Hempstead Town have won only once in their last five outings. They drew 0-0 away at Ebbsfleet United, drew 1-1 at home to Farnham Town, then lost 0-2 away to Folkestone Invicta and 1-3 at home to Weston-super-Mare before salvaging a 2-1 away victory at Salisbury. Their recent record reads 4 scored, 7 conceded across those five games — a 0.8 and 1.4 per-game rate respectively. They sit on 14 points from 11 matches with a goal difference of zero, and their attacking output has been blunt throughout the season, averaging just 0.91 goals per game.
Head-to-head
The last five meetings between these sides tell a story of defensive fragility on both parts. Three of the five encounters ended level: 3-3 in October 2023, 1-1 in April 2023, and 1-1 in January 2022. Hemel won twice, 2-1 away in November 2020 and 2-0 away in September 2019. The pattern suggests both teams are prone to conceding, and draws have been a recurring theme.
Key factors
Tonbridge's home record and recent attacking potency give them an edge, yet Hemel's resilience in draws — five of their 11 matches have ended level — cannot be dismissed. The bookmakers price both teams to score at 1.53, implying a 65% probability, which aligns with the attacking vulnerabilities evident in both defences. The over 2.5 goals market sits at 1.63, suggesting the betting public expects a moderately open game. Tonbridge's season average of 1.82 goals scored per game outpaces Hemel's 0.91 considerably, but Hemel's defensive solidity in draws and Tonbridge's occasional lapses — including two recent home defeats — create genuine uncertainty.
Prediction
The model favours a Tonbridge home win, reflecting their superior league standing, better recent scoring rate, and home advantage. However, the confidence level is narrow: Tonbridge holds only a slight favourite status, only marginally ahead of both Hemel and the draw as competing outcomes. The expected goals balance slightly favours the hosts, but this is not a dominant advantage. Hemel's tendency to draw — evident in their recent form and head-to-head record — keeps the outcome genuinely competitive.
Back Tonbridge Angels as a slight favourite, though the margin is narrow. The home side's attacking quality should tell over the course of 90 minutes, but Hemel's defensive discipline and draw-heavy record mean this is far from a formality. The both teams to score market is finely balanced and offers little edge. Bettors seeking value in the match winner should lean home, but with caution.
Match info
Tournaments:
National League - South(National League South - 28)
Referee:
No information
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Tonbridge Angels
W
L
L
W
D
Hemel Hempstead Town
D
W
L
D
D
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Maidstone Utd | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ebbsfleet United | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 |  Salisbury | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 4 |  Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 |  Truro City | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 6 |  Tonbridge Angels | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 |  Dagenham & Redbridge | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 8 |  Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 |  Dover | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 10 |  Dorking Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 11 |  Farnham Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 12 |  Folkestone Invicta | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 13 |  Torquay | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 |  Chelmsford City | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 14 |
| 15 |  Horsham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 16 |  Hemel Hempstead Town | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| 17 |  Farnborough | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 18 |  Maidenhead | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 19 |  Chesham United | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 20 |  Braintree | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 21 |  AFC Totton | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 10 |
| 22 |  Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| 23 |  Walton & Hersham | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| 24 |  Slough Town | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 |
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Tonbridge Angels vs Hemel Hempstead Town - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
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