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Bahia vs Flamengo Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 18-10-2026
Oct 1821:30
Match Prediction
Expected score: Bahia 1-2 Flamengo
BahiaDrawFlamengo
Both teams to scoreYes (59%)
Bahia host Flamengo at Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador for Round 31 of the 2026 Serie A season. The hosts sit fifth with 49 points from 30 games, while the visitors occupy top spot with 64 points and a commanding goal difference. This clash pits a resurgent home side against the league's most prolific and miserly outfit—a fascinating tactical contest between attack-minded football and defensive solidity.
Team form
Bahia
Bahia have shown encouraging recent form, scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding 1.2 over their last five outings. They beat Chapecoense-sc 2-0 at home and Atletico Paranaense 3-0, though losses to Palmeiras and Remo highlight vulnerability against elite opposition. Their season average of 1.47 goals scored and 1.20 conceded reflects a team capable of creating chances but prone to defensive lapses. Possession-heavy football—65% in their last match—suggests Ceni Rogerio's side will look to control proceedings from the outset.
Flamengo
Flamengo arrive as league leaders with a ruthless record: 19 wins from 30 games and a goal difference of +33. They average 1.93 goals scored and just 0.83 conceded, the division's standout defensive record. Their last five matches yielded 9 goals for and only 5 against, including a clean sheet victory over Mirassol. Leonardo Jardim's 4-2-3-1 setup has proven resilient, though they will be without Ayrton Lucas (thigh injury) and de Arrascaeta (wrist injury), forcing adjustments to their attacking midfield rotation.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record strongly favours Flamengo. In their last five meetings, Flamengo have won four and drawn one, with Bahia failing to register a victory. The most recent encounters saw Flamengo win 3-1, 2-0, and 4-1 at home, establishing a clear pattern of dominance. That historical edge, combined with Flamengo's current form and league position, weighs heavily in their favour.
Key factors
Flamengo's defensive discipline will be tested by Bahia's possession-based approach and home advantage. The visitors' injury absences—particularly Lucas and de Arrascaeta—thin their attacking depth, though Pedro and Samuel Lino remain potent threats. Bahia must exploit their territorial control early; Flamengo typically suffocate opponents through compact defending and clinical finishing. The bookmakers price Flamengo's win at 2.04, reflecting their superiority, yet Bahia's home record and attacking intent suggest they will trouble the visitors. Both teams to score sits at 1.58, indicating confidence in an open contest.
Prediction
Flamengo hold a narrow edge despite Bahia's home advantage and possession threat. The visitors' superior league position, defensive record, and head-to-head dominance position them as slight favourites, though their injury issues and Bahia's recent attacking form ensure this is far from a foregone conclusion. The expected goal balance favours Flamengo, and their ability to score while conceding minimally gives them the margin in a tight affair. Bahia will create chances but are marginally more likely to fall short.
Back Flamengo to win. They are slight favourites in a match that should be competitive but tilted in the visitors' favour by their elite defensive record and proven pedigree in this fixture. The over 2.5 goals market is too close to call, though both teams to score offers reasonable value given Bahia's attacking intent and Flamengo's vulnerability to conceding when pressed.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Bahia
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L
L
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Flamengo
D
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Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 18 |
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Bahia vs Flamengo - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Bahia vs Flamengo football prediction on 365sport.tv combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.