Not Started
Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 18-10-2026
Oct 1814:15
Match Prediction
Expected score: Celta Vigo 1-0 Alaves
Celta VigoDrawAlaves
Over 2.5 goalsNo (36%)
Both teams to scoreNo (45%)
Celta Vigo host Alaves at the Municipal de Balaídos in La Liga's ninth round, with both sides occupying mid-table positions. Celta sit ninth on 8 points from 8 games, while Alaves are seventh with 11 points. The hosts are priced at 2.11 for the win, with the draw at 3.28 and the away victory at 3.59 — a fairly balanced market that reflects genuine uncertainty about the outcome.
Team form
Celta Vigo
Celta's recent record is mixed. They drew 0-0 away at Elche most recently, extending a run of four consecutive draws across all competitions. Before that, they produced an outlier performance with a 5-0 home win over Racing Santander. Over their last five games, they have scored 7 goals but conceded only 2, suggesting defensive solidity despite the lack of wins. Their season average stands at 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game — respectable numbers that mask their inability to convert possession into points.
Alaves
Alaves lost 1-2 at home to Atletico Madrid in their most recent outing, a result that extended their inconsistency. They have won once in five games, beating Osasuna 5-2, but also suffered defeats to Valencia and Racing Santander. Their defensive record is weaker than Celta's: they conceded 7 goals across their last five matches while scoring 7. Season-wide, they average 1.50 goals scored but 1.00 conceded per game — an attacking advantage offset by defensive vulnerability.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record strongly favours Celta. In their last five meetings, Celta have won three times at home (including a 6-0 demolition in June 2020 and a 2-0 victory in December 2020) and drawn none. Alaves managed only one win, away at Celta in October 2018. This pattern suggests the hosts carry psychological advantage, though such historical data can lose relevance when squads and tactics shift.
Key factors
Celta's defensive discipline — 0.75 goals conceded per game — will be tested by Alaves' superior attacking output (1.50 per game). However, Alaves' defensive frailties (1.00 conceded) present opportunities for Celta's forwards. Possession metrics from their last matches show both sides operating with low ball control (Celta 34%, Alaves 32%), suggesting a compact, counter-oriented contest. Celta's home advantage and historical dominance in this fixture count in their favour, but Alaves' superior league position and recent win over Osasuna indicate they are capable of competing.
Prediction
The betting market prices this as a close three-way contest, and the underlying data supports that assessment. Celta edge the probabilities as the most likely outcome, supported by home advantage, defensive stability, and a strong historical record against this opponent. Alaves remain competitive given their league position and attacking potential, while a draw remains a realistic outcome given both sides' recent tendency to draw games. The match looks likely to be low-scoring; the under 2.5 goals market is priced at 1.67, reflecting expectations of a cautious affair.
Back Celta Vigo as the most likely result, though this is a wide-open match where the draw and an Alaves upset carry genuine appeal. The home side's defensive record and historical superiority make them the marginal choice, but bettors should treat this as speculative rather than confident. A low-scoring contest appears probable.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Celta Vigo
L
D
W
L
D
Alaves
L
D
L
L
W
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Other Football matches
Celta Vigo vs Alaves - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Celta Vigo vs Alaves football prediction on 365sport.tv combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.