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Cheltenham vs Newport County Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 24-10-2026
Oct 2411:30
Match Prediction
Expected score: Cheltenham 2-1 Newport County
CheltenhamDrawNewport County
Over 2.5 goalsYes (61%)
Both teams to scoreYes (64%)
Cheltenham host Newport County at Whaddon Road in League Two's 13th round, a fixture that pits the division's fifth-placed side against a team struggling in mid-table. The hosts sit on 18 points from 12 games, while Newport occupy 12th with 15 points. Both sides arrive with mixed recent form, setting up a contest where the outcome remains genuinely uncertain despite Cheltenham's superior league position.
Team form
Cheltenham
Cheltenham have won three of their last five but the pattern is inconsistent. They beat Crawley 3-1 and Chesterfield 2-1 at home, yet lost 0-2 away at Accrington and drew 1-1 at Colchester. Their last outing saw them held to 56% possession with just one shot on goal, a concerning efficiency metric. Over the five-game sample they scored 1.6 per game and conceded 1.4, suggesting a side capable of creating chances but vulnerable to clinical opponents.
Newport County
Newport's form reads as defensive and cautious. They have drawn four of their last five matches—0-0 at Accrington, 1-1 at home to Fleetwood, and two earlier draws—with only losses to Northampton and Salford breaking the pattern. Across five games they averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, a narrow defensive record that reflects their 3-4-2-1 shape under Hayden Mullins. The setup prioritises stability over attacking ambition, and their recent xG of 1.09 in a single match underscores limited creative thrust.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record across five meetings shows no clear pattern. Newport won 4-7 away in 2019, but Cheltenham took a 2-1 home victory in 2018. Three of the five encounters ended level, including two 1-1 draws. History suggests both sides can find the net, though neither has dominated the fixture convincingly.
Key factors
Cheltenham's home record and possession dominance—they averaged 56% in their last outing—should give them territorial control. Newport's defensive shape and draw-heavy form suggest they will sit deep and look to hit on the break. The tactical contrast is stark: Cheltenham's 4-2-3-1 is built for attacking width and midfield control, while Newport's three-at-the-back offers compactness but limited attacking outlets. Cheltenham's season average of 1.75 goals scored exceeds Newport's 1.33, yet both defences have been leaky—Cheltenham concede 1.83 per game, Newport 1.25. This imbalance hints at an open contest where both teams carry scoring threat.
Prediction
The model favours a Cheltenham win, reflecting their superior league position, home advantage, and recent attacking output. However, the margin is tight: a home win sits at 43%, only 11 percentage points clear of an away win at 34%. Newport's defensive discipline and tendency to draw make them a credible obstacle. The expected-goals balance tilts toward Cheltenham, but not decisively. Both teams to score is priced at 58% and carries genuine merit given the defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Over 2.5 goals sits at 61%, suggesting the tactical mismatch—Cheltenham's attacking intent versus Newport's caution—may produce an open game.
Expect a tight affair with a slight edge to Cheltenham. The hosts should dominate possession and create the clearer chances, but Newport's compact shape and recent defensive resilience mean they remain dangerous on the counter. A Cheltenham win is the most likely outcome, though a draw or away victory remain entirely plausible. Both sides scoring looks probable given the respective defensive frailties, and the game could easily swing on fine margins or set-piece execution.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Cheltenham
L
D
L
L
W
Newport County
D
D
W
D
D
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 |  Crewe | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 21 |
| 4 |  Walsall | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 |  York | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 |  Gillingham | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 |  Shrewsbury | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 9 |  Chesterfield | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 10 |  Exeter City | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 11 |  Accrington ST | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 |
| 12 |  Newport County | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 |
| 13 |  Tranmere | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 |
| 14 |  Rochdale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 15 |  Swindon Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 16 |  Bristol Rovers | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 17 |  Grimsby | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| 18 |  Fleetwood Town | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| 19 |  Colchester | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| 20 |  Port Vale | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 21 |  Oldham | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 23 |  Northampton | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
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Cheltenham vs Newport County - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Cheltenham vs Newport County football prediction on 365sport.tv combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.