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Estrela vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 24-10-2026
Oct 2414:30
Match Prediction
Expected score: Estrela 1-0 Casa Pia
EstrelaDrawCasa Pia
Estrela hosts Casa Pia in Amadora on matchday 9 of the Primeira Liga, with the home side seeking to build on their mid-table position against one of the division's struggling outfits. Estrela sit tenth with 10 points from eight games, while Casa Pia languish in 17th on just 4 points, having won only once all season. The gulf in recent form and league standing suggests a clear hierarchy, though Casa Pia's occasional resilience means this is unlikely to be a walkover.
Team form
Estrela
Estrela's recent record is mixed. They lost 0-1 away at Arouca on 11 October, then suffered a 0-2 home defeat to Academico Viseu on 20 September. Before that came an entertaining 3-3 draw at Rio Ave and a 2-1 home win over SC Braga. Over their last five games they have scored 7 and conceded 9, averaging 1.4 goals for and 1.8 against. In their last outing they managed only 2 shots on goal despite 63% possession, suggesting they are creating chances but struggling to convert them.
Casa Pia
Casa Pia have been dire. They lost 0-1 at home to Santa Clara on 10 October, extending a run of one win in eight league games. Their sole recent victory came 2-1 away at Estoril on 20 September; otherwise they have lost to FC Porto (1-4), drawn 0-0 with Vitória SC, and lost 0-1 to Moreirense. Over five games they have scored just 3 and conceded 7, averaging 0.6 goals for and 1.4 against. Their attacking threat is minimal—they managed only 2 shots on goal in their last match with just 38% possession.
Head-to-head
Estrela have dominated this fixture. In their last five meetings, Estrela won three times, drew once, and lost once. Most notably, Estrela thrashed Casa Pia 4-0 at home in March 2026. Casa Pia's sole victory in this sequence came away at Estrela in August 2024. The head-to-head record heavily favours the hosts.
Key factors
Estrela's season average of 1.75 goals scored per game dwarfs Casa Pia's 0.38, while Casa Pia concede 2.13 per game compared to Estrela's 1.88. The hosts are substantially stronger in both attack and defence. Estrela's recent possession dominance (63% in their last match) suggests they will control the game, though their conversion rate remains a concern. Casa Pia's inability to score—just 3 goals in five games—makes them a poor attacking threat, and their defensive fragility (7 conceded in five) leaves them vulnerable to Estrela's more potent attack.
Prediction
Estrela are the favourite here. They are superior in the league standings, have a commanding head-to-head record, and significantly outmatch Casa Pia in both attacking and defensive metrics. Casa Pia's form is dire and their attacking output minimal. The model favours a home win, with Estrela expected to create the clearer chances. The expected goal balance strongly favours the hosts. A low-scoring victory is the likeliest outcome given Estrela's recent difficulty in converting their possession into goals.
Back Estrela to win. They are the favourite and should have too much quality for a Casa Pia side struggling at the wrong end of the table. The odds reflect a home win as the most likely result, and the underlying form and metrics support that view.
Match info
Tournaments:
Primeira Liga(Regular Season - 9)
Referee:
Bruno Pires Costa
Stadium
Estadio Jose Gomes, Amadora
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Estrela
W
L
L
D
W
Casa Pia
W
L
W
L
D
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 |  Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 |  Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 |  Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 15 |  Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 16 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
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Estrela vs Casa Pia - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Estrela vs Casa Pia football prediction on 365sport.tv combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.