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SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 24-10-2026
Oct 2413:30
Match Prediction
Expected score: SC Paderborn 07 1-0 Hamburger SV
SC Paderborn 07DrawHamburger SV
SC Paderborn 07 host Hamburger SV in Bundesliga matchday 7 at the Home Deluxe Arena. Paderborn sit 16th with 5 points from six games, while Hamburg occupy 9th with 9 points. The visitors arrive in stronger recent form, but the hosts have shown they can compete at home and will be keen to climb away from the relegation zone.
Team form
SC Paderborn 07
Paderborn's season has been a struggle. They drew 2-2 away at Werder Bremen last time out, a result that extended their winless run to three matches. Before that came a heavy 2-0 home defeat to Stuttgart. Their sole bright spot in the last five games was a 3-1 home victory over Hoffenheim, but they have also suffered heavy losses to Dortmund and Freiburg. Across these five matches they scored 5 and conceded 9, averaging 1.0 goals for and 1.8 against per game. The underlying numbers from their last outing show limited attacking threat—just 39% possession and 1.01 expected goals—though they did manage 4 shots on target.
Hamburger SV
Hamburg have found their rhythm lately. They won their last three Bundesliga matches: a 1-0 home victory over Stuttgart, a 3-2 away success at Hoffenheim, and a 2-1 home win over Cologne. Two heavy defeats earlier in September—5-0 losses to Leipzig and Mainz—still weigh on their record, but the recent trajectory is clearly upward. Over their last five games they scored 6 and conceded 13, averaging 1.2 goals for and 2.6 against. Their last match showed an xG of 1.46 despite just 34% possession, suggesting clinical finishing when chances arrive.
Head-to-head
These sides have met five times since 2014. Paderborn won 3-0 away in 2014 and 2-1 away in 2022, while Hamburg won 3-1 at home in 2021 and 1-0 at home in 2018. Their most recent encounter, in May 2023, ended 2-2. The head-to-head record offers little clear pattern, though Hamburg have won more often at their own ground.
Key factors
Paderborn's defensive fragility—conceding 1.50 goals per game on average this season—will be tested by a Hamburg side that has scored in three consecutive matches. Conversely, Paderborn's attacking output of 0.83 goals per game suggests they will struggle to break down a Hamburg defence that has tightened recently. Hamburg's superior form and league position give them an edge, yet Paderborn's home record and desperation to climb the table could make them dangerous. The bookmakers price both teams to score at just above even money, reflecting uncertainty about whether either side can keep a clean sheet.
Prediction
Paderborn hold a slight favourite tag at home, supported by their status as hosts and recent resilience in the Bremen draw. However, Hamburg's winning streak and superior points tally present a genuine threat. The expected goal balance slightly favours the hosts, but the gap is narrow. This looks like a match where a single goal could prove decisive, with both teams capable of scoring but neither convincingly dominant. The odds reflect a tight contest in which the home side's advantage is marginal.
Expect a competitive encounter with chances at both ends. Paderborn are slight favourites by virtue of home advantage, but Hamburg's recent form means this could easily go either way. A low-scoring result appears most likely, though both teams have shown they can find the net in recent weeks.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07
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Hamburger SV
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Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 |  SV Elversberg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 |  RB Leipzig | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 |  Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 |  Hamburger SV | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 |  VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 14 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 |  FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 16 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
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SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV football prediction on 365sport.tv combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.